Robin Hanson has said that prediction markets have historically been extremely resilient against manipulation attempts. Historical markets are mostly those where the “bettors on beliefs” do not have a personal stake in the success of “technique A,” like a group member would—so it seems like this futarchist method is overall better than historical group decision-making methods, even if there are some perverse incentive problems.
Robin Hanson has said that prediction markets have historically been extremely resilient against manipulation attempts. Historical markets are mostly those where the “bettors on beliefs” do not have a personal stake in the success of “technique A,” like a group member would—so it seems like this futarchist method is overall better than historical group decision-making methods, even if there are some perverse incentive problems.