However, that phase 1 trial is the only study using the substance with humans. Just that study will run until May 2016, and it’s using prostate cancer patients. It’ll be a while …
It’ll be a while before it is first prescribed by a doctor. Acquiring and consuming it is a whole different question. In fact, promising outcomes from the human trial could lead to the substance itself becoming more difficult to acquire and consume. Or at least less legal. Thankyou FDA (and equivalents). That said, current methods of acquiring the substance make cost a significant factor, as well as lacking the benefits of regulatory oversight.
Past comments by Eliezer lead me to model him as someone who would be averse to taking this kind of risk. He (not unjustifiably) considers his current state to be highly valuable and so has a lot to lose relative to the potential gain. Someone with less to lose but using the same decision algorithm may be more likely to take such risks.
Acquiring the substance may be simpler than I thought. This thread contains an interesting discussion with an apparent chemist about how to have the polypeptide custom-made, in some countries (e.g. Norway) it’s not even patented (yet?). Apparently you can order at some of the same places the researchers order their stuff from, complete with mass spec data as verification, at comparatively low prices—certainly lower than what the official drug will sell for.
at comparatively low prices—certainly lower than what the official drug will sell for.
Lower? Really? That’s surprising. All the previous discussions of custom synthesis sources I had encountered had prohibitive pricing due to lack of economics of scale. ie $6,000 for a cycle.
I’d be very surprised if the patent holder sold a full cycle for $6k or less. Antibodies (think cancer drugs) aren’t on the order of magnitude as expensive to produce as they’re sold for, either. Patients will pay whatever they can if the non-human primate results transfer to humans.
It’ll be a while before it is first prescribed by a doctor. Acquiring and consuming it is a whole different question. In fact, promising outcomes from the human trial could lead to the substance itself becoming more difficult to acquire and consume. Or at least less legal. Thankyou FDA (and equivalents). That said, current methods of acquiring the substance make cost a significant factor, as well as lacking the benefits of regulatory oversight.
Past comments by Eliezer lead me to model him as someone who would be averse to taking this kind of risk. He (not unjustifiably) considers his current state to be highly valuable and so has a lot to lose relative to the potential gain. Someone with less to lose but using the same decision algorithm may be more likely to take such risks.
Acquiring the substance may be simpler than I thought. This thread contains an interesting discussion with an apparent chemist about how to have the polypeptide custom-made, in some countries (e.g. Norway) it’s not even patented (yet?). Apparently you can order at some of the same places the researchers order their stuff from, complete with mass spec data as verification, at comparatively low prices—certainly lower than what the official drug will sell for.
Lower? Really? That’s surprising. All the previous discussions of custom synthesis sources I had encountered had prohibitive pricing due to lack of economics of scale. ie $6,000 for a cycle.
I’d be very surprised if the patent holder sold a full cycle for $6k or less. Antibodies (think cancer drugs) aren’t on the order of magnitude as expensive to produce as they’re sold for, either. Patients will pay whatever they can if the non-human primate results transfer to humans.