As you hint at, any damn decision you could possibly make has at least a 1/3^^^3 chance of causing at least 3^^^3 utility (or −3^^^3 utility). Talking about muggers and simulations and anthropics and stuff is just a distraction from the main problem, which is that as far as I know we don’t yet have a very good justification for pretending that there’s any particular straightforward symmetry-enforcing (meta-)rule keeping utility from swamping probabilities.
Unrelated observation: That we don’t seem to have a problem with probabilities swamping utility might mean that the fact that utility is additive where probabilities are multiplicative is messing with our intuitions somehow.
As you hint at, any damn decision you could possibly make has at least a 1/3^^^3 chance of causing at least 3^^^3 utility (or −3^^^3 utility). Talking about muggers and simulations and anthropics and stuff is just a distraction from the main problem, which is that as far as I know we don’t yet have a very good justification for pretending that there’s any particular straightforward symmetry-enforcing (meta-)rule keeping utility from swamping probabilities.
Unrelated observation: That we don’t seem to have a problem with probabilities swamping utility might mean that the fact that utility is additive where probabilities are multiplicative is messing with our intuitions somehow.