It seems to me that the standard question on the conjunction error about “the probability of an attack by the USSR on Poland as a result of conflict X” and “the probability of an attack by the USSR on Poland” is inaccurate for this experiment, since it contains an implicit connotation that once in the first reason X is named, and in the second case, Y or Z is not indicated, then in the second case we evaluate the attack for no reason, and if we continue to show the person himself his answers to this question, the effect of hindsight comes into play, like that experiment with the substitution of the selected photo. It seems to me that a more correct question, in order not to create such subconscious false premises, would be “the probability of an attack by the USSR on Poland as a result of conflict X” and “the probability of an attack by the USSR on someone as a result of any conflict between them.” Although I’m not sure that this will change the results of the experiment as a whole. At least because even with an explicit indication of “some” instead of an implicit premise of “no reason”, something so multivariate and vague will still not look like a plausible plot, as a result, vague = indetailed = implausible = unlikely = lowprobable.
It seems to me that the standard question on the conjunction error about “the probability of an attack by the USSR on Poland as a result of conflict X” and “the probability of an attack by the USSR on Poland” is inaccurate for this experiment, since it contains an implicit connotation that once in the first reason X is named, and in the second case, Y or Z is not indicated, then in the second case we evaluate the attack for no reason, and if we continue to show the person himself his answers to this question, the effect of hindsight comes into play, like that experiment with the substitution of the selected photo. It seems to me that a more correct question, in order not to create such subconscious false premises, would be “the probability of an attack by the USSR on Poland as a result of conflict X” and “the probability of an attack by the USSR on someone as a result of any conflict between them.” Although I’m not sure that this will change the results of the experiment as a whole. At least because even with an explicit indication of “some” instead of an implicit premise of “no reason”, something so multivariate and vague will still not look like a plausible plot, as a result, vague = indetailed = implausible = unlikely = lowprobable.