OK, but isn’t this symmetric? Doesn’t your friend have an incentive to report p(doom) = 0.1% in the hope that you’ll revise down based on their judgment?
At any rate I think the overall balance of incentives differs from person to person and from friendgroup to friendgroup. At my workplace at least it sure feels like the incentives push towards lower p(doom) than I have.
I think that there might be personal or professional incentives towards underestimating or overestimating based on situation, but the moral incentive will always be towards exaggerating your belief.
I feel like there would be a stronger moral incentive for the high doom people to exaggerate, but im having a hard time putting this belief into words.
OK, but isn’t this symmetric? Doesn’t your friend have an incentive to report p(doom) = 0.1% in the hope that you’ll revise down based on their judgment?
At any rate I think the overall balance of incentives differs from person to person and from friendgroup to friendgroup. At my workplace at least it sure feels like the incentives push towards lower p(doom) than I have.
I think that there might be personal or professional incentives towards underestimating or overestimating based on situation, but the moral incentive will always be towards exaggerating your belief.
I feel like there would be a stronger moral incentive for the high doom people to exaggerate, but im having a hard time putting this belief into words.