To see why it is wrong in general, consider an extreme case: a universal law, which you mostly already believe to be true.
I feel that this example might create another misconception, that certainty usually begets greater certainty. So here’s an opposing example, where high confidence in a belief coexists with high probability that it’s going to get less and less certain. You are at a bus stop, and you believe that you’ll get to your destination on time, as busses here are usually reliable, though they only arrive once an hour and can deviate from schedule by several minutes. If you see a bus, you’ll probably arrive in time, but every minute that you see no bus, it’s evidence of something having gone wrong, so that the bus won’t arrive at all in the next hour. You expect a highly certain belief (that you’ll arrive on time) to decrease (a little bit), which is balanced by an unlikely alternative (for each given minute of waiting) of it going in the direction of greater certainty (if the bus does arrive within that minute).
I feel that this example might create another misconception, that certainty usually begets greater certainty. So here’s an opposing example, where high confidence in a belief coexists with high probability that it’s going to get less and less certain. You are at a bus stop, and you believe that you’ll get to your destination on time, as busses here are usually reliable, though they only arrive once an hour and can deviate from schedule by several minutes. If you see a bus, you’ll probably arrive in time, but every minute that you see no bus, it’s evidence of something having gone wrong, so that the bus won’t arrive at all in the next hour. You expect a highly certain belief (that you’ll arrive on time) to decrease (a little bit), which is balanced by an unlikely alternative (for each given minute of waiting) of it going in the direction of greater certainty (if the bus does arrive within that minute).