That is admirably precise advice, and I appreciate it. But I think Bayesians should not get into the habit of believing things. Things clear-cut enough for me to believe them are never interesting to me. In speculative matters such as the singularity, musings are more useful than provable beliefs, as they cover far more probability, and forming opinions about them will probably reduce your error by more.
That is admirably precise advice, and I appreciate it. But I think Bayesians should not get into the habit of believing things. Things clear-cut enough for me to believe them are never interesting to me. In speculative matters such as the singularity, musings are more useful than provable beliefs, as they cover far more probability, and forming opinions about them will probably reduce your error by more.