Re the English strain, do you (still) think its dominating new cases by mid-March will lead to a huge increase in cases/deaths nationwide, or will vaccination prevent that?
The CDC’s latest ensemble forecast doesn’t predict an increase in deaths, though it only goes out to the end of March:
I think it’s not clear which way it will go, depends on a bunch of unknown variables and where they land. The toy model can be tinkered with. But if it’s actually more deadly too then yes deaths almost have to rise before falling.
Re the English strain, do you (still) think its dominating new cases by mid-March will lead to a huge increase in cases/deaths nationwide, or will vaccination prevent that?
The CDC’s latest ensemble forecast doesn’t predict an increase in deaths, though it only goes out to the end of March:
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html#anchor_1587397564229
I think it’s not clear which way it will go, depends on a bunch of unknown variables and where they land. The toy model can be tinkered with. But if it’s actually more deadly too then yes deaths almost have to rise before falling.
It now seems it’s about 60% more deadly:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579
Ah I see you discuss this in your latest post, just posted.