Actually, that makes me think of another explanation besides overreaction to small probabilities: if a person takes 1B and loses, they know they would have won if they’d chosen differently. If they take 2B and lose, they can tell themselves (and others) they probably would have lost anyway.
Ok that is exactly my line of thinking and why i can’t understand the broader point of this argument.
Yes I can see the statistical similarity that makes it “the same”- but the situation is totally different in that one offers “certain win or risk” and the other is “risk vs risk” with a barely noticeable difference between them.
So my decision on both questions goes like this
1a > 1b because even if i was offered MUCH less, i’d still likely take that deciding that i’m not greedy and free money always feels good but giving away free money (by trying to get a bit more) always feels foolish and greedy.
2b > 2a because if the statistic played out over 100 times, the average person will think it was equal value between them- unless they logged the statistics to find the slight difference. Therefore if it takes that much attention to feel the difference it’s easy to pretend they are the same risk but one is 11.12% more money- which is a lot easier to notice without logging statistics.
I don’t see how these decisions conflict with each other.
I seem to agree with you, but I think how you arrived to 11.12% is wrong. Did you divide 3000/27000? You can´t do that, since you won´t have 27000 unless you get those 3000 dollar extra. Shouldn´t you do 3000/24000 = 12,5%?
Actually, that makes me think of another explanation besides overreaction to small probabilities: if a person takes 1B and loses, they know they would have won if they’d chosen differently. If they take 2B and lose, they can tell themselves (and others) they probably would have lost anyway.
Ok that is exactly my line of thinking and why i can’t understand the broader point of this argument.
Yes I can see the statistical similarity that makes it “the same”- but the situation is totally different in that one offers “certain win or risk” and the other is “risk vs risk” with a barely noticeable difference between them.
So my decision on both questions goes like this 1a > 1b because even if i was offered MUCH less, i’d still likely take that deciding that i’m not greedy and free money always feels good but giving away free money (by trying to get a bit more) always feels foolish and greedy.
2b > 2a because if the statistic played out over 100 times, the average person will think it was equal value between them- unless they logged the statistics to find the slight difference. Therefore if it takes that much attention to feel the difference it’s easy to pretend they are the same risk but one is 11.12% more money- which is a lot easier to notice without logging statistics.
I don’t see how these decisions conflict with each other.
I seem to agree with you, but I think how you arrived to 11.12% is wrong. Did you divide 3000/27000? You can´t do that, since you won´t have 27000 unless you get those 3000 dollar extra. Shouldn´t you do 3000/24000 = 12,5%?