While it’s true that Chinese semiconductor fabs are a decade behind TSMC (and will probably remain so for some time), that doesn’t seem to have stopped them from building 162 of the top 500 largest supercomputers in the world.
They did this (mostly) before the export regulations were instantiated. I’m not sure what the exact numbers are, but both of their supercomputers in the top 10 were constructed before October 2022 (when they were imposed). Also, I imagine that they still might have had a steady supply of cutting edge chips soon after the export regulations. It would make sense that they were not enacted immediately and also that exports that had already begun hadn’t been ceased, but I have not verified that.
The number 7 supercomputer is built using Chinese natively developed chips, which still demonstrates the quality/quantity tradeoff.
Also, saying “sanctions will bite in the future” is only persuasive if you have long timelines (and expect sanctions to hold up over those timelines). If you think AGI is imminent, or you think sanctions will weaken over time, future sanctions matter less.
They did this (mostly) before the export regulations were instantiated. I’m not sure what the exact numbers are, but both of their supercomputers in the top 10 were constructed before October 2022 (when they were imposed). Also, I imagine that they still might have had a steady supply of cutting edge chips soon after the export regulations. It would make sense that they were not enacted immediately and also that exports that had already begun hadn’t been ceased, but I have not verified that.
The number 7 supercomputer is built using Chinese natively developed chips, which still demonstrates the quality/quantity tradeoff.
Also, saying “sanctions will bite in the future” is only persuasive if you have long timelines (and expect sanctions to hold up over those timelines). If you think AGI is imminent, or you think sanctions will weaken over time, future sanctions matter less.