The US is unusually large and developed precisely because it has had abnormally high growth (and also, therefore, high immigration).
It’s due to a combination of being old and having sustained abnormally high growth. If it’s sustained, then it’s not just luck. You can invest in the US and know that it will continue growing like it did before. It’s not cherry-picking.
If it’s sustained, then it’s not just luck.
Kinda the point of survivorship bias and other selection effects is that you can get what looked like ‘sustained’ performance just by luck...
Said many people in every bubble ever.
The US is unusually large and developed precisely because it has had abnormally high growth (and also, therefore, high immigration).
It’s due to a combination of being old and having sustained abnormally high growth. If it’s sustained, then it’s not just luck. You can invest in the US and know that it will continue growing like it did before. It’s not cherry-picking.
Kinda the point of survivorship bias and other selection effects is that you can get what looked like ‘sustained’ performance just by luck...
Said many people in every bubble ever.