Timelines: The intuitive definition is “When will crazy AI stuff start to happen?” The best analysis of timelines in the world as far as I know is Ajeya’s, which uses the definition of Transformative AI given here: roughly, “When will the first AI be built that is capable of causing a change in the world comparable to the Industrial Revolution or greater?” My own preferred definition of timelines is “When is the first AI-induced potential point of no return?”
Timelines: The intuitive definition is “When will crazy AI stuff start to happen?” The best analysis of timelines in the world as far as I know is Ajeya’s, which uses the definition of Transformative AI given here: roughly, “When will the first AI be built that is capable of causing a change in the world comparable to the Industrial Revolution or greater?” My own preferred definition of timelines is “When is the first AI-induced potential point of no return?”