Risk Awareness: “In the critical period, will it be widely believed by most of the relevant people that AI is a serious existential risk?”
This is closely related to whether or not there are warning shots or fire alarms, but in principle it could happen without any of either.
I would add “will relevant people expect AI to have extreme benefits, such as a significant percentage point reduction in other existential risk or a technological solution to aging”
Risk Awareness: “In the critical period, will it be widely believed by most of the relevant people that AI is a serious existential risk?”
This is closely related to whether or not there are warning shots or fire alarms, but in principle it could happen without any of either.
I would add “will relevant people expect AI to have extreme benefits, such as a significant percentage point reduction in other existential risk or a technological solution to aging”