I don’t know if inside view forecasting can ever be more reliable than outside view forecasting. It seems that insiders as a general and very robust rule tend to be strongly overconfident, and see all kinds of reason why their particular instance is different and will have better outcome than the reference class.
I don’t know if inside view forecasting can ever be more reliable than outside view forecasting. It seems that insiders as a general and very robust rule tend to be strongly overconfident, and see all kinds of reason why their particular instance is different and will have better outcome than the reference class.
Try applying that to physics, engineering, biology, or any other technical field. In many cases, the outside view doesn’t stand a chance.
I don’t know if inside view forecasting can ever be more reliable than outside view forecasting. It seems that insiders as a general and very robust rule tend to be strongly overconfident, and see all kinds of reason why their particular instance is different and will have better outcome than the reference class.
http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/07/beware-the-insi.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting
Try applying that to physics, engineering, biology, or any other technical field. In many cases, the outside view doesn’t stand a chance.