It is the sense in which the term “probability” is generally understood on OB/LW, with varying levels of comprehension by specific individuals. There are many posts on probability, both as an imprecise tool and an ideal (but subjective) construction. They should probably be organized in the Bayesian probability article on the wiki. In the meantime, you are welcome to look for references in the Overcoming Bias archives.
It is the sense in which the term “probability” is generally understood on OB/LW, with varying levels of comprehension by specific individuals. There are many posts on probability, both as an imprecise tool and an ideal (but subjective) construction. They should probably be organized in the Bayesian probability article on the wiki. In the meantime, you are welcome to look for references in the Overcoming Bias archives.
You may be interested in the following two posts, related to this discussion:
Probability is in the Mind
When (Not) To Use Probabilities