I can’t say much about other markets, but I do believe in the EMH is a reasonable approximation for the US stock market. The “obvious” rationalist investments into Tesla and AMD are an after-the-fact story to make it sound like that was the right thing to do back then. I’m sure one con construct an equally persuasive story for any other community of people. The pizza lover community will say you should have obviously invested in Dominos, and their stock has grown 25x in the past 10 years. Car enthusiasts will pick Tesla, etc.
Additionally, one prediction for a few years of returns is statistically insignificant. If you can today make, say 20, independent predictions about stocks that will beat SPY 1 year from now (in risk adjusted terms—after correcting for different risks), each of which has only a priori 50% chance of beating SPY, and then at the end of the year you’re correct on say 15+ of them, that would be statistically significant, for example.
The “obvious” rationalist investments into Tesla and AMD are an after-the-fact story to make it sound like that was the right thing to do back then.
I’m also unconvinced by this evidence. As other comments here noted, the rise of AMD and GPU stocks has very little to do with deep learning. What would make me more persuaded is if the author made specific public predictions about stock prices, with justification, and then analyzed it later.
In other words, I want to see what tech stock picks deluks917 currently thinks are undervalued. Then we’ll see if they’re right in a few years.
I can’t say much about other markets, but I do believe in the EMH is a reasonable approximation for the US stock market. The “obvious” rationalist investments into Tesla and AMD are an after-the-fact story to make it sound like that was the right thing to do back then. I’m sure one con construct an equally persuasive story for any other community of people. The pizza lover community will say you should have obviously invested in Dominos, and their stock has grown 25x in the past 10 years. Car enthusiasts will pick Tesla, etc.
Additionally, one prediction for a few years of returns is statistically insignificant. If you can today make, say 20, independent predictions about stocks that will beat SPY 1 year from now (in risk adjusted terms—after correcting for different risks), each of which has only a priori 50% chance of beating SPY, and then at the end of the year you’re correct on say 15+ of them, that would be statistically significant, for example.
I’m also unconvinced by this evidence. As other comments here noted, the rise of AMD and GPU stocks has very little to do with deep learning. What would make me more persuaded is if the author made specific public predictions about stock prices, with justification, and then analyzed it later.
In other words, I want to see what tech stock picks deluks917 currently thinks are undervalued. Then we’ll see if they’re right in a few years.