https://ftx.com/markets/prediction has little markets and doesn’t look to me like it has markets that easily allow you to make tens of thousands of dollars with nearly no risk.
markets that easily allow you to make tens of thousands of dollars with nearly no risk.
Back during November-January, FTX had a contract called TRUMPFEB that gave ~risk free ~15% returns in 2 months, up to millions of dollars (by betting against Trump to be president in Feburary). Right now the FTX OLY2021 market comes pretty darn close—you can bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on the Olympics happening at 76c. There is obviously the risk of the Olympics not happening, but I haven’t seen a good case for that risk being under 10%, making this a fantastic trade in expectation.
https://ftx.com/markets/prediction has little markets and doesn’t look to me like it has markets that easily allow you to make tens of thousands of dollars with nearly no risk.
Back during November-January, FTX had a contract called TRUMPFEB that gave ~risk free ~15% returns in 2 months, up to millions of dollars (by betting against Trump to be president in Feburary). Right now the FTX OLY2021 market comes pretty darn close—you can bet hundreds of thousands of dollars on the Olympics happening at 76c. There is obviously the risk of the Olympics not happening, but I haven’t seen a good case for that risk being under 10%, making this a fantastic trade in expectation.
I agree and recommend this trade here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MSpfFBCQYw3YA8kMC/violating-the-emh-prediction-markets