Strong upvote. This is a great example taking several things we have long discussed and transforming them into being actionable. This also strikes close to the things I have thought were the most under-valued in LessWrong conversation.
I attempted a poor man’s ur-version of this years ago when trying to project how long it would take to deliver a product to market, when I lacked information about the primary reference class of similar products (they don’t hand project management details over to students; who knew?). All I really did at that time was identify three different reference classes and then averaged together one or two of each, and called that my timeline estimate.
Strong upvote. This is a great example taking several things we have long discussed and transforming them into being actionable. This also strikes close to the things I have thought were the most under-valued in LessWrong conversation.
I attempted a poor man’s ur-version of this years ago when trying to project how long it would take to deliver a product to market, when I lacked information about the primary reference class of similar products (they don’t hand project management details over to students; who knew?). All I really did at that time was identify three different reference classes and then averaged together one or two of each, and called that my timeline estimate.