Oh HELL yeah. I tried Metaculus’s private predictions for this, but they needed just as much detail as the public ones did, at least in terms of “this field is required”. They seem to be aiming more for the superforecaster/people who actually give their predictions some thought camp, which is perfectly fine, but not suited for me, who just wants something quick and simple.
Absolutely love this one. I’ve already migrated my (admittedly few) existing predictions over. Thanks for this!
EDIT: “Each day I’ll write down whether I want to leave or stay in my job. After 2 months, will I have chosen ‘leave’ on >30 days?” is such a good suggested question, both to demonstrate details about the site and also to get people to think about what prediction can do for them, personally! And I love how you can just click the suggestion and have it auto-populate into the title field.
Thanks! And thanks for mentioning this bug where the contents of comments were lost—I’ve now fixed this, comments made from now on should be recorded properly.
Oh HELL yeah. I tried Metaculus’s private predictions for this, but they needed just as much detail as the public ones did, at least in terms of “this field is required”. They seem to be aiming more for the superforecaster/people who actually give their predictions some thought camp, which is perfectly fine, but not suited for me, who just wants something quick and simple.
Signup was easy, I love how it watches for dates in the question and automatically sets them in the resolve field. Posting a comment containing a link by itself (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/bitcoin-btc-price-could-hit-100000-by-end-2024-standard-chartered.html) on one of my private predictions seems to have posted a blank comment, though. (p.s. my odds on 1 BTC = $100,000 are about 15%)
Absolutely love this one. I’ve already migrated my (admittedly few) existing predictions over. Thanks for this!
EDIT: “Each day I’ll write down whether I want to leave or stay in my job. After 2 months, will I have chosen ‘leave’ on >30 days?” is such a good suggested question, both to demonstrate details about the site and also to get people to think about what prediction can do for them, personally! And I love how you can just click the suggestion and have it auto-populate into the title field.
Thanks! And thanks for mentioning this bug where the contents of comments were lost—I’ve now fixed this, comments made from now on should be recorded properly.
Cool, thank you!