The problem with a lot of faulty outside view arguments is that the choice of possible features to focus on is too rich. For a reference class to be a good explanation of the expected conclusion, it needs to be hard to vary. Otherwise, the game comes down to rationalization, and one may as well name “Things that are likely possible” as the reference class and be done with it.
The problem with a lot of faulty outside view arguments is that the choice of possible features to focus on is too rich. For a reference class to be a good explanation of the expected conclusion, it needs to be hard to vary. Otherwise, the game comes down to rationalization, and one may as well name “Things that are likely possible” as the reference class and be done with it.