And the only practical way to realize this, that I can think of now, is by predicting the largest stock markets such as the NYSE, via some kind of options trading, many many many times within say a calendar year, and then showing their average rate of their returns is significantly above random chance.
The threshold for doing this isn’t being above average relative to human individuals, it’s being close to the top relative to specialized institutions. That can occasionally be achievable, but usually it isn’t.
Well I agree it is a much higher bar than just ‘above average’, yet it still seems like the easiest way of delivering a credible proof that can’t be second guessed somehow. (That I can think of, hence the post)
Since ‘cheating’ at this would also mean that the person somehow has gained insider information for a calendar year that was above and beyond what the same ‘specialized institutions’ could obtain.
Which is so vanishingly unlikely that I think pretty much everyone (>99% of readers) would accept the results as the bonafide truth.
But it probably is limited only to literal geniuses and above as a practical mechanism.
The threshold for doing this isn’t being above average relative to human individuals, it’s being close to the top relative to specialized institutions. That can occasionally be achievable, but usually it isn’t.
Well I agree it is a much higher bar than just ‘above average’, yet it still seems like the easiest way of delivering a credible proof that can’t be second guessed somehow. (That I can think of, hence the post)
Since ‘cheating’ at this would also mean that the person somehow has gained insider information for a calendar year that was above and beyond what the same ‘specialized institutions’ could obtain.
Which is so vanishingly unlikely that I think pretty much everyone (>99% of readers) would accept the results as the bonafide truth.
But it probably is limited only to literal geniuses and above as a practical mechanism.
By this assessment, who in real life do you think has proven above-average intelligence?
No one that I know based on first hand information, otherwise I probably would have included them as an example.
Most likely due the fact that people who succeeded at such have little reason to advertise it beyond a small circle.