Let’s say Trump actually had a 50% chance of winning last time
What do you mean by this? That human behaviour is non-deterministic? Or that, given the publicly available information at the time, the best guess was 50 percent? If the latter, it’s easy to get a better credence after the event happened. Look at Nate’s track record. An event that he gives an x percent chance happens pretty damn close to x percent of the time. You could’ve just as easily said he underestimates the winners when he got it “right” (i.e. he said > 50 percent chance), and therefore Biden has an even higher chance of winning.
I mean that given he won, the actual odds of him winning were actually better than 10%.
I cannot prove this externally but - before the election in 2016 I said to several people, who remember this, that it would be somewhere between a narrow Clinton win and a strong Trump win. So it was not outlandish to think Trump could win. The main reason I had was what is now known as the “shy Trump voter” effect. People did not want to get cancelled for admitting that they were a ‘fascist’.
> Look at Nate’s track record
If Trump wins this one, as looks fairly likely at the moment, NS will be 3⁄5 for Presidential elections, no better than chance.
My main beef with the argument from credibility is a) NS does not have a long strong track record in this field of presidential elections, b) Credible is different than totally accurate. I pointed out if he was wrong by a few tens of percents, like last time, his view is not strong evidence that there is a winning bet here.
Funnily enough NS reduced his P(Biden) to about 50% on election day (or maybe the day before).
What do you mean by this? That human behaviour is non-deterministic? Or that, given the publicly available information at the time, the best guess was 50 percent? If the latter, it’s easy to get a better credence after the event happened. Look at Nate’s track record. An event that he gives an x percent chance happens pretty damn close to x percent of the time. You could’ve just as easily said he underestimates the winners when he got it “right” (i.e. he said > 50 percent chance), and therefore Biden has an even higher chance of winning.
> What do you mean by this?
I mean that given he won, the actual odds of him winning were actually better than 10%.
I cannot prove this externally but - before the election in 2016 I said to several people, who remember this, that it would be somewhere between a narrow Clinton win and a strong Trump win. So it was not outlandish to think Trump could win. The main reason I had was what is now known as the “shy Trump voter” effect. People did not want to get cancelled for admitting that they were a ‘fascist’.
> Look at Nate’s track record
If Trump wins this one, as looks fairly likely at the moment, NS will be 3⁄5 for Presidential elections, no better than chance.
My main beef with the argument from credibility is a) NS does not have a long strong track record in this field of presidential elections, b) Credible is different than totally accurate. I pointed out if he was wrong by a few tens of percents, like last time, his view is not strong evidence that there is a winning bet here.
Funnily enough NS reduced his P(Biden) to about 50% on election day (or maybe the day before).