I mean that given he won, the actual odds of him winning were actually better than 10%.
I cannot prove this externally but - before the election in 2016 I said to several people, who remember this, that it would be somewhere between a narrow Clinton win and a strong Trump win. So it was not outlandish to think Trump could win. The main reason I had was what is now known as the “shy Trump voter” effect. People did not want to get cancelled for admitting that they were a ‘fascist’.
> Look at Nate’s track record
If Trump wins this one, as looks fairly likely at the moment, NS will be 3⁄5 for Presidential elections, no better than chance.
My main beef with the argument from credibility is a) NS does not have a long strong track record in this field of presidential elections, b) Credible is different than totally accurate. I pointed out if he was wrong by a few tens of percents, like last time, his view is not strong evidence that there is a winning bet here.
Funnily enough NS reduced his P(Biden) to about 50% on election day (or maybe the day before).
> What do you mean by this?
I mean that given he won, the actual odds of him winning were actually better than 10%.
I cannot prove this externally but - before the election in 2016 I said to several people, who remember this, that it would be somewhere between a narrow Clinton win and a strong Trump win. So it was not outlandish to think Trump could win. The main reason I had was what is now known as the “shy Trump voter” effect. People did not want to get cancelled for admitting that they were a ‘fascist’.
> Look at Nate’s track record
If Trump wins this one, as looks fairly likely at the moment, NS will be 3⁄5 for Presidential elections, no better than chance.
My main beef with the argument from credibility is a) NS does not have a long strong track record in this field of presidential elections, b) Credible is different than totally accurate. I pointed out if he was wrong by a few tens of percents, like last time, his view is not strong evidence that there is a winning bet here.
Funnily enough NS reduced his P(Biden) to about 50% on election day (or maybe the day before).