I’m too lazy to look it up, but I did research this a couple of weeks ago and found that 538 had indeed outperformed the markets both in 2008 and 2016 (I wasn’t able to find data for 2012). This is not very informative, though, since it’s just a couple of cases. Much better is to look at the state-level predictions and use brier scores as a measure of forecasting performance.
And this year too. I agree about the small sample size if we’re just asking “Who will be president?” We should use every one of 538′s predictions that could have been used to make a bet in a liquid betting market.
If a profitable set of Kelly/Markowitz bets (under all election orderings) has a worse Brier score than the market’s Brier score, I’d be more interested in the profit of the bets, since we’re talking about betting money.
I’m too lazy to look it up, but I did research this a couple of weeks ago and found that 538 had indeed outperformed the markets both in 2008 and 2016 (I wasn’t able to find data for 2012). This is not very informative, though, since it’s just a couple of cases. Much better is to look at the state-level predictions and use brier scores as a measure of forecasting performance.
538 totally outperformed in 2012 on intrade—it seems like there were whales pushing up the romney price on intrade.
And this year too. I agree about the small sample size if we’re just asking “Who will be president?” We should use every one of 538′s predictions that could have been used to make a bet in a liquid betting market.
If a profitable set of Kelly/Markowitz bets (under all election orderings) has a worse Brier score than the market’s Brier score, I’d be more interested in the profit of the bets, since we’re talking about betting money.