And this year too. I agree about the small sample size if we’re just asking “Who will be president?” We should use every one of 538′s predictions that could have been used to make a bet in a liquid betting market.
If a profitable set of Kelly/Markowitz bets (under all election orderings) has a worse Brier score than the market’s Brier score, I’d be more interested in the profit of the bets, since we’re talking about betting money.
And this year too. I agree about the small sample size if we’re just asking “Who will be president?” We should use every one of 538′s predictions that could have been used to make a bet in a liquid betting market.
If a profitable set of Kelly/Markowitz bets (under all election orderings) has a worse Brier score than the market’s Brier score, I’d be more interested in the profit of the bets, since we’re talking about betting money.