I’m debating to what extent to write a detailed explanation, but
(1) yes the odds are insane at this point, and I felt the need to note this in my weekly Covid post. Trump is not 0% but he sure isn’t 38%.
(2) the relative odds between the odds now, and the odds earlier in the year, are how you know the market is insane here. Nate’s update from 71% to 87% reflects that Trump’s position is obviously vastly worse than it was before, with less time to go, fewer opportunities for things to change, many votes in the bank and Biden several points farther ahead when the baseline was tightening. Yet the odds on Trump remain stubborn.
When I wrote my recent review of PredictIt prices, I thought Trump’s odds were very generous but perhaps plausible. That’s no longer the case.
I’m debating to what extent to write a detailed explanation, but
(1) yes the odds are insane at this point, and I felt the need to note this in my weekly Covid post. Trump is not 0% but he sure isn’t 38%.
(2) the relative odds between the odds now, and the odds earlier in the year, are how you know the market is insane here. Nate’s update from 71% to 87% reflects that Trump’s position is obviously vastly worse than it was before, with less time to go, fewer opportunities for things to change, many votes in the bank and Biden several points farther ahead when the baseline was tightening. Yet the odds on Trump remain stubborn.
When I wrote my recent review of PredictIt prices, I thought Trump’s odds were very generous but perhaps plausible. That’s no longer the case.