Yeah, if the whole experiment is done twice, and you’re truthfully told “this is the first experiment” or “this is the second experiment” at the beginning of each day (a minute after waking up), then I think your reasoning in the first experiment (an hour after waking up) should be the same as though the second experiment didn’t exist. Having had a minute of confusion in your past should be irrelevant.
I disagree. I have presented arguments on LW in the past that if the experiment is run once in the history of the universe, you should reason as a halfer, but if the experiment is run many times, you will assign a probability in between 1⁄2 and 1⁄3, approaching one third as the number of times approaches infinity. I think that this applies even if you know the numerical identity of your particular run.
Actually, I was probably mistaken. I think I was thinking of this post and in particular this thread and this one. (I was previously using the username “Unknowns”.)
I think I confused this with Sleeping Beauty because of the similarity of Incubator situations with Sleeping Beauty. I’ll have to think about it but I suspect there will be similar results.
Yeah, if the whole experiment is done twice, and you’re truthfully told “this is the first experiment” or “this is the second experiment” at the beginning of each day (a minute after waking up), then I think your reasoning in the first experiment (an hour after waking up) should be the same as though the second experiment didn’t exist. Having had a minute of confusion in your past should be irrelevant.
I disagree. I have presented arguments on LW in the past that if the experiment is run once in the history of the universe, you should reason as a halfer, but if the experiment is run many times, you will assign a probability in between 1⁄2 and 1⁄3, approaching one third as the number of times approaches infinity. I think that this applies even if you know the numerical identity of your particular run.
Interesting! I was away from LW for a long time and probably missed it. Can you give a link, or sketch the argument here?
Actually, I was probably mistaken. I think I was thinking of this post and in particular this thread and this one. (I was previously using the username “Unknowns”.)
I think I confused this with Sleeping Beauty because of the similarity of Incubator situations with Sleeping Beauty. I’ll have to think about it but I suspect there will be similar results.