I’d be interested in chatting about this with you and others — it’s not obvious that Anthropic releasing better models makes OpenAI go nontrivially faster / not obvious that “the race” is real.
Not sure about the accuracy of this graph, but the general picture seems to match what companies claim, and the vibe is racing.
Do think that there are distinct questions about “is there a race” vs. “will this race action lead to bad consequences” vs. “is this race action morally condemnable”. I’m hoping that this race action is not too consequentially bad, maybe it’s consequentially good, maybe it still has negative Shapely value even if expected value is okay. There is some sense in which it is morally icky.
A thing I’ve been thinking about lately is “what does it mean to shift from the early-to-mid-to-late game”.
In strategy board games, there’s an explicit shift from “early game, it’s worth spending the effort to build a longterm engine. At some point, you want to start spending your resources on victory points.” And a lens I’m thinking through is “how long does it keep making sense to invest in infrastructure, and what else might one do?”
I assume this is a pretty different lens than what you meant to be thinking about right now but I’m kinda curious for whatever-your-own model was of what it means to be in the mid vs late game.
Like, in Chess you start off with a state where many pieces can’t move in the early game, in the middle game many pieces are in play moving around and trading, then in the end game it’s only a few pieces, you know what the goal is, roughly how things will play out.
In AI it’s like only a handful of players, then ChatGPT/GPT-4 came out and now everyone is rushing to get in (my mark of the start of the mid-game), but over time probably many players will become irrelevant or fold as the table stakes (training costs) get too high.
In my head the end-game is when the AIs themselves start becoming real players.
I’d be interested in chatting about this with you and others — it’s not obvious that Anthropic releasing better models makes OpenAI go nontrivially faster / not obvious that “the race” is real.
https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1803837844798189580
Not sure about the accuracy of this graph, but the general picture seems to match what companies claim, and the vibe is racing.
Do think that there are distinct questions about “is there a race” vs. “will this race action lead to bad consequences” vs. “is this race action morally condemnable”. I’m hoping that this race action is not too consequentially bad, maybe it’s consequentially good, maybe it still has negative Shapely value even if expected value is okay. There is some sense in which it is morally icky.
Idk there’s probably multiple ways to define racing, some of them are on at least
In my mental model, we’re still in the mid-game, not yet in the end-game.
A thing I’ve been thinking about lately is “what does it mean to shift from the early-to-mid-to-late game”.
In strategy board games, there’s an explicit shift from “early game, it’s worth spending the effort to build a longterm engine. At some point, you want to start spending your resources on victory points.” And a lens I’m thinking through is “how long does it keep making sense to invest in infrastructure, and what else might one do?”
I assume this is a pretty different lens than what you meant to be thinking about right now but I’m kinda curious for whatever-your-own model was of what it means to be in the mid vs late game.
Like, in Chess you start off with a state where many pieces can’t move in the early game, in the middle game many pieces are in play moving around and trading, then in the end game it’s only a few pieces, you know what the goal is, roughly how things will play out.
In AI it’s like only a handful of players, then ChatGPT/GPT-4 came out and now everyone is rushing to get in (my mark of the start of the mid-game), but over time probably many players will become irrelevant or fold as the table stakes (training costs) get too high.
In my head the end-game is when the AIs themselves start becoming real players.