Does this analysis take into account the fact that young people are most likely to die in ways that are unlikely to result in successful cryopreservation? If not, I’m wondering what the numbers look like if you re-run the simulation after taking this into account. As a young person myself, if I die in the next decade I think it is most likely to be from injury or suicide (neither of which seems likely to lead to successful cryopreservation), and this is one of the main reasons I have been cryocrastinating. See also this discussion.
Hello again, I put your consideration into this section. Basically, if you trust yourself completely & are younger than 26 years, wait until you’re 26 (but the benefit is tiny), otherwise, it’s still optimal to sign up now.
Thanks! I think I would have guessed that the optimal signup is around age 35-55 so this motivates me to dig closer into your model to see if I disagree with some parameter or modeling assumption (alternatively, I would be able to fix some mistaken intuition that I have). I’ve made a note to myself to come back to this when I have more free time.
After improving the cost-benefit analysis in multiple small ways (e.g. adding more fleshed out x-risk concerns), it is actually optimal to sign up at age 50if one has complete self-trust. If one doesn’t have complete self-trust, signing up immediately is still optimal.
I spent time working in fatal car crash investigation (reading crash reports and doing engineering analysis, nothing as gory as you’re probably picturing), and car crashes often involved massive head trauma or would, at a minimum, require *hours* of lag time before the cryonics team could make it there. I’d say at a complete guess that only about 10% involved people dying in hospital later on (i.e. under circumstances that a cryo team could get to them in time to prepare the body).
My impression of the technology is that it’s too much in its infancy to be able to say with any sort of confidence that a body that had been left with minimal treatment for a good 8-10 hours would be in a good state for preservation. And my understanding is that after only a few minutes/hours the brain starts to really degrade.
This is a major reason I’m not considering yet. I also live in a country without a good cryo organisation, and the exchange rates make the fees for Alcor quite a lot when I am not convinced I’d get the value. I also think the 5% figure is way too high.
I mean admittedly, pascal’s wager comes into play a bit here, but I’m not convinced that my current jurisdiction is a good place to die and be cryopreserved, and I have no plans to move.
I have been putting this off because my medical knowledge is severely lacking, and I would have to estimate how the leading factors of death influence the possibility to get crypreserved mainly by subjectively evaluating them. That said, I’ll look up some numbers, update the post and notify you about it (other people have been requesting this as well).
Does this analysis take into account the fact that young people are most likely to die in ways that are unlikely to result in successful cryopreservation? If not, I’m wondering what the numbers look like if you re-run the simulation after taking this into account. As a young person myself, if I die in the next decade I think it is most likely to be from injury or suicide (neither of which seems likely to lead to successful cryopreservation), and this is one of the main reasons I have been cryocrastinating. See also this discussion.
Hello again, I put your consideration into this section. Basically, if you trust yourself completely & are younger than 26 years, wait until you’re 26 (but the benefit is tiny), otherwise, it’s still optimal to sign up now.
Thanks! I think I would have guessed that the optimal signup is around age 35-55 so this motivates me to dig closer into your model to see if I disagree with some parameter or modeling assumption (alternatively, I would be able to fix some mistaken intuition that I have). I’ve made a note to myself to come back to this when I have more free time.
After improving the cost-benefit analysis in multiple small ways (e.g. adding more fleshed out x-risk concerns), it is actually optimal to sign up at age 50 if one has complete self-trust. If one doesn’t have complete self-trust, signing up immediately is still optimal.
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to shoot me a message.
Why would injury prevent cryopreservation, unless it’s head injury?
I spent time working in fatal car crash investigation (reading crash reports and doing engineering analysis, nothing as gory as you’re probably picturing), and car crashes often involved massive head trauma or would, at a minimum, require *hours* of lag time before the cryonics team could make it there. I’d say at a complete guess that only about 10% involved people dying in hospital later on (i.e. under circumstances that a cryo team could get to them in time to prepare the body).
My impression of the technology is that it’s too much in its infancy to be able to say with any sort of confidence that a body that had been left with minimal treatment for a good 8-10 hours would be in a good state for preservation. And my understanding is that after only a few minutes/hours the brain starts to really degrade.
This is a major reason I’m not considering yet. I also live in a country without a good cryo organisation, and the exchange rates make the fees for Alcor quite a lot when I am not convinced I’d get the value. I also think the 5% figure is way too high.
I mean admittedly, pascal’s wager comes into play a bit here, but I’m not convinced that my current jurisdiction is a good place to die and be cryopreserved, and I have no plans to move.
I have been putting this off because my medical knowledge is severely lacking, and I would have to estimate how the leading factors of death influence the possibility to get crypreserved mainly by subjectively evaluating them. That said, I’ll look up some numbers, update the post and notify you about it (other people have been requesting this as well).