Meta-point: your communication pattern fits with following pattern:
Crackpot: <controversial statement>
Person: this statement is false, for such-n-such reasons
Crackpot: do you understand that this is trivially true because of <reasons that are hard to connect with topic>
Person: no, I don’t.
Crackpot: <responds with link to giant blogpost filled with esoteric language and vague theory>
Person: I’m not reading this crackpottery, which looks and smells like crackpottery.
The reason why smart people find themselves in this pattern is because they expect short inferential distances, i.e., they see their argumentation not like vague esoteric crackpottery, but like a set of very clear statements and fail to put themselves in shoes of people who are going to read this, and they especially fail to account for fact that readers already distrust them because they started conversation with <controversial statement>.
On object level, as stated, you are wrong. Observing heuristic failing should decrease your confidence ih heuristic. You can argue that your update should be small, due to, say, measurement errors or strong priors, but direction of update should be strictly down.
Meta-point: your communication pattern fits with following pattern:
The reason why smart people find themselves in this pattern is because they expect short inferential distances, i.e., they see their argumentation not like vague esoteric crackpottery, but like a set of very clear statements and fail to put themselves in shoes of people who are going to read this, and they especially fail to account for fact that readers already distrust them because they started conversation with <controversial statement>.
On object level, as stated, you are wrong. Observing heuristic failing should decrease your confidence ih heuristic. You can argue that your update should be small, due to, say, measurement errors or strong priors, but direction of update should be strictly down.
Can you fill in a particular example of me engaging in that pattern so we can address it in the concrete rather than in the abstract?