Assume you pick “sim” ⇒ calculate the probability of being a simulation conditional on picking “sim” ⇒ calculate the expected utility conditional on picking “sim” and on the calculated probabilties.
Assume you pick “don’t sim” ⇒ calculate the probability of being a simulation conditional on picking “don’t sim” ⇒ calculate the expected utility conditional on picking “don’t sim” and on the calculated probabilities.
Then just pick whichever of the two has the highest expected utility. No infinite regress there!
Just do it this way:
Assume you pick “sim” ⇒ calculate the probability of being a simulation conditional on picking “sim” ⇒ calculate the expected utility conditional on picking “sim” and on the calculated probabilties.
Assume you pick “don’t sim” ⇒ calculate the probability of being a simulation conditional on picking “don’t sim” ⇒ calculate the expected utility conditional on picking “don’t sim” and on the calculated probabilities.
Then just pick whichever of the two has the highest expected utility. No infinite regress there!