I initially read this as “you infer or choose reference classes based on what you want to predict”, taking end to mean purpose of the reference class. But you’re talking end more literally, for reference classes that have a duration. I think that’s a little more suspect.
The reference class problem seems to apply equally to SIA and SSA, and in fact to non-anthropic probability as well. Categories are simply not natural things, and there is no “correct” reference class.
I actually meant “you infer or choose reference classes based on what you want to predict”, but my point of interest was specific application of the problem, that is, Doomsday argument.
I initially read this as “you infer or choose reference classes based on what you want to predict”, taking end to mean purpose of the reference class. But you’re talking end more literally, for reference classes that have a duration. I think that’s a little more suspect.
The reference class problem seems to apply equally to SIA and SSA, and in fact to non-anthropic probability as well. Categories are simply not natural things, and there is no “correct” reference class.
I actually meant “you infer or choose reference classes based on what you want to predict”, but my point of interest was specific application of the problem, that is, Doomsday argument.