I am still not convinced: it seems that p(abiogenesis) is a very small constant depending on a random generation of a string of around 100 bits. The probability of life becoming intelligence p(li) is also, I assume, is a constant. The only thing we don’t know is a multiplier given by panspermia, which shows how many planets will get “infected” from the Eden in a given type of universes. This multiplier, I assume, is different in different universes and depends, say, on the density of stars. We could use anthropics to suggests that we lives in the universe with the higher values of the panspermia multiplier (depending of the hare of the universes of this type).
The difference here with what you said above is that we don’t make any conclusions about the average global level of the multiplier over all of the multiverse, you are right that anthropics can’t help us here. Here I use anthropics to conclude about what region of the multiverse I am more likely to be located, not to deduce the global properties of the multiverse. Thus there is no SIA, as there is no “possible observers”: all observers are real, but some of them are located in more crowded place.
I am still not convinced: it seems that p(abiogenesis) is a very small constant depending on a random generation of a string of around 100 bits. The probability of life becoming intelligence p(li) is also, I assume, is a constant. The only thing we don’t know is a multiplier given by panspermia, which shows how many planets will get “infected” from the Eden in a given type of universes. This multiplier, I assume, is different in different universes and depends, say, on the density of stars. We could use anthropics to suggests that we lives in the universe with the higher values of the panspermia multiplier (depending of the hare of the universes of this type).
The difference here with what you said above is that we don’t make any conclusions about the average global level of the multiplier over all of the multiverse, you are right that anthropics can’t help us here. Here I use anthropics to conclude about what region of the multiverse I am more likely to be located, not to deduce the global properties of the multiverse. Thus there is no SIA, as there is no “possible observers”: all observers are real, but some of them are located in more crowded place.