The coronavirus isn’t hitting us everywhere at the same time. The peak may yet vary by several weeks depending on location. Considering the economic costs of staying home, when is the right time to hole up, by the numbers?
The risk of infection probably depends on the population density and current infection rate in one’s local community, among other things. I’m also not sure how reliable the available data is due to lack of testing. One should also hole up some time before the peak so as not to risk developing pneumonia at a later time near the peak when hospital beds become unavailable. How long does an infection take to progress to pneumonia? How much does that vary? What about secondary infections for family members? Considering the logistic growth of cases, that pre-peak time depends on the growth rate, but by the time it looks bad, it’s too late.
If I’m monitoring e.g. the John’s Hopkins dashboard, how do I use that to time my isolation? What is the trigger point?
[Question] When is the right time to hole up?
The coronavirus isn’t hitting us everywhere at the same time. The peak may yet vary by several weeks depending on location. Considering the economic costs of staying home, when is the right time to hole up, by the numbers?
The risk of infection probably depends on the population density and current infection rate in one’s local community, among other things. I’m also not sure how reliable the available data is due to lack of testing. One should also hole up some time before the peak so as not to risk developing pneumonia at a later time near the peak when hospital beds become unavailable. How long does an infection take to progress to pneumonia? How much does that vary? What about secondary infections for family members? Considering the logistic growth of cases, that pre-peak time depends on the growth rate, but by the time it looks bad, it’s too late.
If I’m monitoring e.g. the John’s Hopkins dashboard, how do I use that to time my isolation? What is the trigger point?