Partially seconded. (I think most people agree that the primary flaw is the symmetry argument, but I don’t think that argument does what they think it does, and I do see people holding up other, minority flaws. I do think the classic wager is horribly flawed for other, related but less commonly mentioned, reasons.)
Thanks for the link to the Overcoming Bias post. I read that and it clarified some things for me. If I had known about that post, above I would have just linked to it when I wrote that the fallacy behind Pascal’s wager is probably actually unclear, minor or controversial.
Partially seconded. (I think most people agree that the primary flaw is the symmetry argument, but I don’t think that argument does what they think it does, and I do see people holding up other, minority flaws. I do think the classic wager is horribly flawed for other, related but less commonly mentioned, reasons.)
I’ll write a top-level post about this today or tomorrow. (In the meantime, see Where Does Pascal’s Wager Fail? and Carl Shulman’s comments on The Pascal’s Wager Fallacy Fallacy.)
Thanks for the link to the Overcoming Bias post. I read that and it clarified some things for me. If I had known about that post, above I would have just linked to it when I wrote that the fallacy behind Pascal’s wager is probably actually unclear, minor or controversial.