For satisfying SoullessAutomaton’s curiosity I think phrasing it differently would have been better: which one would you bet (say, $100) if you had to do and could only pick one? (Assuming that both questions would get truthfully answered immediately after making the bet. It’s just so that you wouldn’t pick one of these just because the question seems more interesting.)
Is it to say, if you had to make such a bet (at a gunpoint, if you will), you’d be indifferent and might as well flip a coin to choose? If so, fair enough. If not, what’s more to it? (Assuming you don’t want to get killed on refusing to take the bet.)
I don’t know: these probabilities are not technically defined, so I’m unable to compute them, and too low for my intuition to compare.
For satisfying SoullessAutomaton’s curiosity I think phrasing it differently would have been better: which one would you bet (say, $100) if you had to do and could only pick one? (Assuming that both questions would get truthfully answered immediately after making the bet. It’s just so that you wouldn’t pick one of these just because the question seems more interesting.)
This is a trivial transformation that I don’t see how could change the interpretation of the question.
Is it to say, if you had to make such a bet (at a gunpoint, if you will), you’d be indifferent and might as well flip a coin to choose? If so, fair enough. If not, what’s more to it? (Assuming you don’t want to get killed on refusing to take the bet.)
I could as well flip a coin.