Suppose you came up with some way of generating hypotheses that was completely crazy—say, pumping a robot-controlled Ouija board with the digits of pi—and the resulting suggestions kept on getting verified experimentally. The pure ideal essence of Science wouldn’t skip a beat. The pure ideal essence of Bayes would burst into flames and die.
Why? Methinks Bayes would eventually conclude there’s some unexpected correlation between reality and the Ouija board.
(This goes for what ME said as well—if Ouija boards actually generated useful hypotheses, eventually scientists would wise up and start using them all the time.)
Why? Methinks Bayes would eventually conclude there’s some unexpected correlation between reality and the Ouija board.
(This goes for what ME said as well—if Ouija boards actually generated useful hypotheses, eventually scientists would wise up and start using them all the time.)