Thanks for this comment. I’d be generally interested to hear more about how one could get to 20% doom (or less).
The list you give above is cool but doesn’t do it for me; going down the list I’d guess something like: 1. 20% likely (honesty seems like the best bet to me) because we have so little time left, but even if it happens we aren’t out of the woods yet because there are various plausible ways we could screw things up. So maybe overall this is where 1/3rd of my hope comes from. 2. 5% likely? Would want to think about this more. I could imagine myself being very wrong here actually, I haven’t thought about it enough. But it sure does sound like wishful thinking. 3. This is already happening to some extent, but the question is, will it happen enough? My overall “humans coordinate to not build the dangerous kinds of AI for several years, long enough to figure out how to end the acute risk period” is where most of my hope comes from. I guess it’s the remaining 2/3rds basically. So, I guess I can say 20% likely. 4. What does this mean?
I would be much more optimistic if I thought timelines were longer.
Thanks for this comment. I’d be generally interested to hear more about how one could get to 20% doom (or less).
The list you give above is cool but doesn’t do it for me; going down the list I’d guess something like:
1. 20% likely (honesty seems like the best bet to me) because we have so little time left, but even if it happens we aren’t out of the woods yet because there are various plausible ways we could screw things up. So maybe overall this is where 1/3rd of my hope comes from.
2. 5% likely? Would want to think about this more. I could imagine myself being very wrong here actually, I haven’t thought about it enough. But it sure does sound like wishful thinking.
3. This is already happening to some extent, but the question is, will it happen enough? My overall “humans coordinate to not build the dangerous kinds of AI for several years, long enough to figure out how to end the acute risk period” is where most of my hope comes from. I guess it’s the remaining 2/3rds basically. So, I guess I can say 20% likely.
4. What does this mean?
I would be much more optimistic if I thought timelines were longer.