Good point. As well as “how do I feel about the president?” being the wrong question, historical trends for presidential popularity when entering an election year, etc., are probably reasonably good predictors. Presidential popularity isn’t anti-inductive like a market.
Good point. As well as “how do I feel about the president?” being the wrong question, historical trends for presidential popularity when entering an election year, etc., are probably reasonably good predictors. Presidential popularity isn’t anti-inductive like a market.