Good point. As well as “how do I feel about the president?” being the wrong question, historical trends for presidential popularity when entering an election year, etc., are probably reasonably good predictors. Presidential popularity isn’t anti-inductive like a market.
This is a bad example because a major error is people taking too much of an inside view.
Good point. As well as “how do I feel about the president?” being the wrong question, historical trends for presidential popularity when entering an election year, etc., are probably reasonably good predictors. Presidential popularity isn’t anti-inductive like a market.