With research automation in mind, here’s my wager: the modal top-15 STEM PhD student will redirect at least half of their discussion/questions from peers to mid-2026 LLMs. Defining the relevant set of questions as being drawn from the same difficulty/diversity/open-endedness distribution that PhDs would have posed in early 2024.
With research automation in mind, here’s my wager: the modal top-15 STEM PhD student will redirect at least half of their discussion/questions from peers to mid-2026 LLMs.
Fwiw, I’ve kind of already noted myself starting to do some of this, for AI safety-related papers; especially after Claude-3.5 Sonnet came out.
Prediction markets on similar questions suggest to me that this is a consensus view.
General LLMs 44% to get gold on the IMO before 2026. This suggests the mathematical competency will be transferrable—not just restricted to domain-specific solvers.
LLMs favored to outperform PhD students in their own subject before 2026
With research automation in mind, here’s my wager: the modal top-15 STEM PhD student will redirect at least half of their discussion/questions from peers to mid-2026 LLMs. Defining the relevant set of questions as being drawn from the same difficulty/diversity/open-endedness distribution that PhDs would have posed in early 2024.
Fwiw, I’ve kind of already noted myself starting to do some of this, for AI safety-related papers; especially after Claude-3.5 Sonnet came out.