Once we have identified genes that play a key role in intelligence then eugenics through massive embryo selection has a good chance at producing lots of super-geniuses especially if you are willing to tolerate a high “error rate.” The Chinese are actively looking for the genetic keys to intelligence. (See http://vladtepesblog.com/?p=24064) The Chinese have a long pro-eugenics history (See Imperfect Conceptions by Frank Dikötter) and I suspect have a plan to implement a serious eugenics program as soon as it becomes practical which will likely be within the next five years.
I think the main point of disagreement is the estimate that such a program would be practical in five years (hence my longer-term estimate). My impression is that actual studies of the genetic roots of intelligence are progressing but at a fairly slow pace. I’d give a much lower than 40% chance that we’ll have that good an understanding in five years.
I wrote about it here:
http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2007/10/a-thousand-chinese-einsteins-every-year.html
Once we have identified genes that play a key role in intelligence then eugenics through massive embryo selection has a good chance at producing lots of super-geniuses especially if you are willing to tolerate a high “error rate.” The Chinese are actively looking for the genetic keys to intelligence. (See http://vladtepesblog.com/?p=24064) The Chinese have a long pro-eugenics history (See Imperfect Conceptions by Frank Dikötter) and I suspect have a plan to implement a serious eugenics program as soon as it becomes practical which will likely be within the next five years.
I think the main point of disagreement is the estimate that such a program would be practical in five years (hence my longer-term estimate). My impression is that actual studies of the genetic roots of intelligence are progressing but at a fairly slow pace. I’d give a much lower than 40% chance that we’ll have that good an understanding in five years.
If the following is correct we are already close to finding lots of IQ boosting genes:
“SCIENTISTS have identified more than 200 genes potentially associated with academic performance in schoolchildren.
Those schoolchildren possessing the ‘right’ combinations achieved significantly better results in numeracy, literacy and science.’”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/found-genes-that-make-kids-smart/story-e6frg6nf-1225926421510
The article is correct, but we are not close to finding lots of IQ boosting genes.
But the relevant question is whether the Chinese government is fooled by this too.