I think the main point of disagreement is the estimate that such a program would be practical in five years (hence my longer-term estimate). My impression is that actual studies of the genetic roots of intelligence are progressing but at a fairly slow pace. I’d give a much lower than 40% chance that we’ll have that good an understanding in five years.
I think the main point of disagreement is the estimate that such a program would be practical in five years (hence my longer-term estimate). My impression is that actual studies of the genetic roots of intelligence are progressing but at a fairly slow pace. I’d give a much lower than 40% chance that we’ll have that good an understanding in five years.
If the following is correct we are already close to finding lots of IQ boosting genes:
“SCIENTISTS have identified more than 200 genes potentially associated with academic performance in schoolchildren.
Those schoolchildren possessing the ‘right’ combinations achieved significantly better results in numeracy, literacy and science.’”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/found-genes-that-make-kids-smart/story-e6frg6nf-1225926421510
The article is correct, but we are not close to finding lots of IQ boosting genes.
But the relevant question is whether the Chinese government is fooled by this too.