I am shocked that more people believe in a 95% chance of advanced flying saucers than a 99.5% change of not being in ‘basement reality’. Really?! I still think all of you upvoters are irrational! Irrational I say!
Well, from a certain point of view you could see the two propositions as being essentially equivalent… i.e. the inhabitants of a higher layer reality poking through the layers and toying with us (if you had a universe simulation running on your desktop, would you really be able to refrain from fucking with your sims’ heads)? So whatever probability you assign to one proposition, your probability for the other shouldn’t be too much different.
Help! There is someone reasoning in terms of decision theoretic significantness ruining my fun by telling me that my disagreement with you is meaningless.
Ahhh! Ahhhhh! I am extremely reluctant to go into long explanations here. Have you read the TDT manual though? I think it’s up at the singinst.org website now, finally. It might dissolve confusions of interpretation, but no promises. Sorry, it’s just a really tricky and confusing topic with lots of different intuitions to take into account and I really couldn’t do it justice in a few paragraphs here. :(
I am shocked that more people believe in a 95% chance of advanced flying saucers than a 99.5% change of not being in ‘basement reality’. Really?! I still think all of you upvoters are irrational! Irrational I say!
Well, from a certain point of view you could see the two propositions as being essentially equivalent… i.e. the inhabitants of a higher layer reality poking through the layers and toying with us (if you had a universe simulation running on your desktop, would you really be able to refrain from fucking with your sims’ heads)? So whatever probability you assign to one proposition, your probability for the other shouldn’t be too much different.
I certainly agree with you now, but it wasn’t entirely certain what you meant by your statement. A qualifier might help.
Most won’t see the need for precision, but you’re right, I should add a qualifier for those who’d (justifiably) like it.
Help! There is someone reasoning in terms of decision theoretic significantness ruining my fun by telling me that my disagreement with you is meaningless.
Ahhh! Ahhhhh! I am extremely reluctant to go into long explanations here. Have you read the TDT manual though? I think it’s up at the singinst.org website now, finally. It might dissolve confusions of interpretation, but no promises. Sorry, it’s just a really tricky and confusing topic with lots of different intuitions to take into account and I really couldn’t do it justice in a few paragraphs here. :(