I think you should use a manifold market to decide on whether you should read the post, instead of the test this comment is putting forth. There’s too much noise here, which isn’t present in a prediction market about the outcome of your engagement.
Even if Eliezer doesn’t think the objections hold up to scrutiny, I think it would still be highly valuable to the wider community for him to share his perspective on them. It feels pretty obvious to me he won’t think they hold up to the scrutiny, but sharing his disagreement would be helpful for the community.
I assume Rob is making this argument internally. I tentatively agree. Writing rebuttals is more difficult than reading them though so not as clear a calculation.
I also didn’t want to make two arguments. One that he should use prediction markets to choose what he reads, and also he should focus on helping the community rather than his specified metric of worthiness.
I think you should use a manifold market to decide on whether you should read the post, instead of the test this comment is putting forth. There’s too much noise here, which isn’t present in a prediction market about the outcome of your engagement.
Market here: https://manifold.markets/GarrettBaker/will-eliezer-think-there-was-a-sign
Even if Eliezer doesn’t think the objections hold up to scrutiny, I think it would still be highly valuable to the wider community for him to share his perspective on them. It feels pretty obvious to me he won’t think they hold up to the scrutiny, but sharing his disagreement would be helpful for the community.
I assume Rob is making this argument internally. I tentatively agree. Writing rebuttals is more difficult than reading them though so not as clear a calculation.
I also didn’t want to make two arguments. One that he should use prediction markets to choose what he reads, and also he should focus on helping the community rather than his specified metric of worthiness.