In this case the fact that many people believe in a Native American-Israelite connection is not evidence against a Native American-Israelite connection, just evidence against the claims of Mormon archaeologists on the subject. You might update similarly if you learned that particular archaeologist was incompetent or dishonest. The causal connection between the fact and the evidence has been undermined. But I think this is more a matter of formalizing how we represent evidence, I doubt there is a substantive disagreement over what heuristics are helpful. Semantics, I think.
I agree. Although Mormonism may not be a good example because only certain people are Mormons. If we use an example that potentially casts doubt on all humans (for example, conspiracy theories), then it not only means that all previous evidence you’ve heard from others becomes less believable, but even that your own calculations on the subject are now suspect since you are probably subject to the same bias as everyone else.
In this case the fact that many people believe in a Native American-Israelite connection is not evidence against a Native American-Israelite connection, just evidence against the claims of Mormon archaeologists on the subject. You might update similarly if you learned that particular archaeologist was incompetent or dishonest. The causal connection between the fact and the evidence has been undermined. But I think this is more a matter of formalizing how we represent evidence, I doubt there is a substantive disagreement over what heuristics are helpful. Semantics, I think.
I agree. Although Mormonism may not be a good example because only certain people are Mormons. If we use an example that potentially casts doubt on all humans (for example, conspiracy theories), then it not only means that all previous evidence you’ve heard from others becomes less believable, but even that your own calculations on the subject are now suspect since you are probably subject to the same bias as everyone else.