I grimly predict that the effect of this dialogue on the community will be polarization
Beware of self-fulfilling prophecies (and other premature meta)! If both sides in a dispute expect the other side to just entrench, then they’re less likely to invest the effort to try to bridge the gap.
This very comment section is one of the main things that will determine the community’s reaction, and diverting our focus to ‘what will our reaction be?’ before we’ve talked about the object-level claims can prematurely lock in a certain reaction.
(That said, I think you’re doing a useful anti-polarization thing here, by showing empathy for people you disagree with, and showing willingness to criticize people you agree with. I don’t at all dislike this comment overall; I just want to caution against giving up on something before we’ve really tried. This is the first proper MIRI-response to Paul’s takeoff post, and should be a pretty big update for a lot of people—I don’t think people were even universally aware that Eliezer endorses hard takeoff anymore, much less aware of his reasoning.)
Fair enough! I too dislike premature meta, and feel bad that I engaged in it. However… I do still feel like my comment probably did more to prevent polarization than cause it? That’s my independent impression at any rate. (For the reasons you mention).
I certainly don’t want to give up! In light of your pushback I’ll edit to add something at the top.
Beware of self-fulfilling prophecies (and other premature meta)! If both sides in a dispute expect the other side to just entrench, then they’re less likely to invest the effort to try to bridge the gap.
This very comment section is one of the main things that will determine the community’s reaction, and diverting our focus to ‘what will our reaction be?’ before we’ve talked about the object-level claims can prematurely lock in a certain reaction.
(That said, I think you’re doing a useful anti-polarization thing here, by showing empathy for people you disagree with, and showing willingness to criticize people you agree with. I don’t at all dislike this comment overall; I just want to caution against giving up on something before we’ve really tried. This is the first proper MIRI-response to Paul’s takeoff post, and should be a pretty big update for a lot of people—I don’t think people were even universally aware that Eliezer endorses hard takeoff anymore, much less aware of his reasoning.)
Fair enough! I too dislike premature meta, and feel bad that I engaged in it. However… I do still feel like my comment probably did more to prevent polarization than cause it? That’s my independent impression at any rate. (For the reasons you mention).
I certainly don’t want to give up! In light of your pushback I’ll edit to add something at the top.