Depends on what you mean by “optimistic that this will work.” Presumably Eliezer at least thinks this is positive expected value (and so do I). That doesn’t have to be because he assigns a high probability to it having positive value, it could be because he assigns a moderate probability to it having moderately high positive value or because he assigns a low probability to it having extremely high positive value, etc.
When computing the expected value, keep in mind that Soylent displaces other food, so the actual cost (assuming the project meets its funding goals) is not $65 but $65 minus however much Eliezer would otherwise have spent on food in a week. For me, and I suspect for Eliezer as well, this number is more than $65, so Eliezer can think that the expected value of replacing his food with Soylent is somewhat negative and still think it’s a good idea to try it for a week. Soylent instead of other food also saves food preparation time in addition to saving money.
Depends on what you mean by “optimistic that this will work.”
I mean buying in at the $65 for a week level.
That doesn’t have to be because he assigns a high probability to it having positive value, it could be because he assigns a moderate probability to it having moderately high positive value or because he assigns a low probability to it having extremely high positive value, etc.
I’m trying to understand the “moderate probability” part. EY’s been on so many non-working diets; this is evidence against a dietary solution working, unless there’s a reason why Soylent isn’t in that reference class.
When computing the expected value, keep in mind that Soylent displaces other food, so the actual cost (assuming the project meets its funding goals) is not $65 but $65 minus however much Eliezer would otherwise have spent on food in a week.
Have you not come across “meal replacement diet” (which may be partial or total) until now? There is a bunch of articles about it in Google Scholars, not to mention the popular media.
I don’t understand. Soylent contains maltodextrin, oat powder, whey protein from milk, olive oil, various vitamins and minerals, whereas, Slim-Fast, for example, contains milk, milk protein concentrate, sugar, maltodextrin, canola oil, various vitamins and minerals, etc. How is one more like regular food than the other?
Considering the amount of time, effort, money, and pain you have been or are willing to put in to decrease your fatness, I want to make sure that you’ve actually considered what your evidence is for whatever benefits and costs you perceive in decreasing your fatness. I haven’t looked into studies in detail, but I think even reflecting on the discourse surrounding fat has a large effect on one’s probability estimate for ‘fat is evil’. By a noticeable (though not necessarily decisive) margin, I find the most plausible explanation for what little I know about fat to be that the world is crazy, people are mad and bigoted, fatness in itself does not on average cause any actionable (i.e. calling for large intervention) significant net loss of health, the medical community has failed to convincingly demonstrate such massive ill effects after controlling for other more plausible causes despite trying extremely hard to because it is privileging a false hypothesis, and that this research agenda is both motivated by and feeds into the aforementioned societal craziness.
(I claim that I’m not counter-other-optimizing-Eliezer_Yudkowsky / epistemic other-optimizing, but I suspect it’d be epistemic other-optimizing to insist you believe that.)
Guess we’re all stuck with Soylent then! In for $65.
See also: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=5746844
I look forward to your self-experiments...
I’m curious why you’re apparently optimistic that this will work for you, when nothing else has.
Depends on what you mean by “optimistic that this will work.” Presumably Eliezer at least thinks this is positive expected value (and so do I). That doesn’t have to be because he assigns a high probability to it having positive value, it could be because he assigns a moderate probability to it having moderately high positive value or because he assigns a low probability to it having extremely high positive value, etc.
When computing the expected value, keep in mind that Soylent displaces other food, so the actual cost (assuming the project meets its funding goals) is not $65 but $65 minus however much Eliezer would otherwise have spent on food in a week. For me, and I suspect for Eliezer as well, this number is more than $65, so Eliezer can think that the expected value of replacing his food with Soylent is somewhat negative and still think it’s a good idea to try it for a week. Soylent instead of other food also saves food preparation time in addition to saving money.
I mean buying in at the $65 for a week level.
I’m trying to understand the “moderate probability” part. EY’s been on so many non-working diets; this is evidence against a dietary solution working, unless there’s a reason why Soylent isn’t in that reference class.
Obviously.
All of the other diets involve food?
Yep.
Have you not come across “meal replacement diet” (which may be partial or total) until now? There is a bunch of articles about it in Google Scholars, not to mention the popular media.
The meal replacements I’ve seen look a lot more like regular food than Soylent does.
I don’t understand. Soylent contains maltodextrin, oat powder, whey protein from milk, olive oil, various vitamins and minerals, whereas, Slim-Fast, for example, contains milk, milk protein concentrate, sugar, maltodextrin, canola oil, various vitamins and minerals, etc. How is one more like regular food than the other?
Considering the amount of time, effort, money, and pain you have been or are willing to put in to decrease your fatness, I want to make sure that you’ve actually considered what your evidence is for whatever benefits and costs you perceive in decreasing your fatness. I haven’t looked into studies in detail, but I think even reflecting on the discourse surrounding fat has a large effect on one’s probability estimate for ‘fat is evil’. By a noticeable (though not necessarily decisive) margin, I find the most plausible explanation for what little I know about fat to be that the world is crazy, people are mad and bigoted, fatness in itself does not on average cause any actionable (i.e. calling for large intervention) significant net loss of health, the medical community has failed to convincingly demonstrate such massive ill effects after controlling for other more plausible causes despite trying extremely hard to because it is privileging a false hypothesis, and that this research agenda is both motivated by and feeds into the aforementioned societal craziness.
(I claim that I’m not counter-other-optimizing-Eliezer_Yudkowsky / epistemic other-optimizing, but I suspect it’d be epistemic other-optimizing to insist you believe that.)
This did control for lots of stuff.