Depends on what you mean by “optimistic that this will work.”
I mean buying in at the $65 for a week level.
That doesn’t have to be because he assigns a high probability to it having positive value, it could be because he assigns a moderate probability to it having moderately high positive value or because he assigns a low probability to it having extremely high positive value, etc.
I’m trying to understand the “moderate probability” part. EY’s been on so many non-working diets; this is evidence against a dietary solution working, unless there’s a reason why Soylent isn’t in that reference class.
When computing the expected value, keep in mind that Soylent displaces other food, so the actual cost (assuming the project meets its funding goals) is not $65 but $65 minus however much Eliezer would otherwise have spent on food in a week.
Have you not come across “meal replacement diet” (which may be partial or total) until now? There is a bunch of articles about it in Google Scholars, not to mention the popular media.
I don’t understand. Soylent contains maltodextrin, oat powder, whey protein from milk, olive oil, various vitamins and minerals, whereas, Slim-Fast, for example, contains milk, milk protein concentrate, sugar, maltodextrin, canola oil, various vitamins and minerals, etc. How is one more like regular food than the other?
I mean buying in at the $65 for a week level.
I’m trying to understand the “moderate probability” part. EY’s been on so many non-working diets; this is evidence against a dietary solution working, unless there’s a reason why Soylent isn’t in that reference class.
Obviously.
All of the other diets involve food?
Yep.
Have you not come across “meal replacement diet” (which may be partial or total) until now? There is a bunch of articles about it in Google Scholars, not to mention the popular media.
The meal replacements I’ve seen look a lot more like regular food than Soylent does.
I don’t understand. Soylent contains maltodextrin, oat powder, whey protein from milk, olive oil, various vitamins and minerals, whereas, Slim-Fast, for example, contains milk, milk protein concentrate, sugar, maltodextrin, canola oil, various vitamins and minerals, etc. How is one more like regular food than the other?