The criticism here implies that one of the most important factors in modelling the end of Moore’s law is whether we’re running out of ideas (which the poster thinks is true). Do you think your models capture the availability of new ideas?
This criticism has been made for the last 40 years and people have usually had new ideas and were able to execute them. Thus, on priors, we think this trend will continue even if we don’t know exactly which kind of ideas they will be.
In fact, due to our post, we were made aware of a couple of interesting ideas about chip improvements that we hadn’t considered before that might change the outcome of our predictions (towards later limits) but we haven’t included them in the model yet.
I disagree, because physical limits matter more here than ideas here. The types of new ideas that could sustain Moore’s Law are very radical like quantum computers, and I heavily think the tweet thread is either very wrong or has really important information.
The criticism here implies that one of the most important factors in modelling the end of Moore’s law is whether we’re running out of ideas (which the poster thinks is true). Do you think your models capture the availability of new ideas?
This criticism has been made for the last 40 years and people have usually had new ideas and were able to execute them. Thus, on priors, we think this trend will continue even if we don’t know exactly which kind of ideas they will be.
In fact, due to our post, we were made aware of a couple of interesting ideas about chip improvements that we hadn’t considered before that might change the outcome of our predictions (towards later limits) but we haven’t included them in the model yet.
I disagree, because physical limits matter more here than ideas here. The types of new ideas that could sustain Moore’s Law are very radical like quantum computers, and I heavily think the tweet thread is either very wrong or has really important information.